China’s rare earth export controls expose robotics supply risks

China’s dominance of rare earth magnet production is exposing humanoid robot manufacturers to export licensing risks as they prepare to expand output, OilPrice.com reported. The outlet said China produces more than 90% of the world’s supply of these magnets, while each humanoid robot requires up to 4.5kg. Chinese restrictions affected production of Tesla’s Optimus robot in 2025, according to the report.

The exposure extends to dysprosium and terbium, heavy rare earths used to help magnets retain their strength at high operating temperatures. Both were covered by Beijing’s April 2025 export licensing measures. OilPrice.com said the US depends entirely on imports for its heavy rare earth compounds and metals. Those licensing requirements remain in place, while a broader package of Chinese export controls is suspended until 10 January 2027, according to US information cited by the outlet.

Demand forecasts suggest the supply challenge could become more pronounced. OilPrice.com cited Goldman Sachs projections for annual humanoid robot sales of roughly 6.5 million by 2035, nearly five times its previous forecast. Research firm IDC counted almost 25,000 shipments worldwide in the first half of 2026, more than five times the year-earlier total, with China supplying most of them. CRU warned in September that robotics could deepen an anticipated rare earth shortage.

REalloys is developing an alternative supply chain linking Saskatchewan processing with metal production in Euclid, Ohio. According to OilPrice.com, the company holds rights to about 80% of output from the Saskatchewan Research Council’s upgraded rare earth facility, including dysprosium and terbium. The facility is commissioning approximately 150 tonnes of annual NdPr metal capacity in the first quarter of 2027, out of total planned capacity of 525 tonnes a year.

REalloys already produces rare earth metals, alloys and magnet materials in Ohio and signed a non-binding letter of intent with Korean magnet manufacturer JS Link in July, the report said. However, building domestic capacity takes time: General Motors agreed a long-term magnet supply arrangement with MP Materials in 2021 and was only testing output from its Texas facility five years later. OilPrice.com disclosed that its owner holds shares and/or options in REalloys, describing that ownership as a major conflict of interest; it said neither the author nor publisher was paid for the report.